Why You’re Worse Than You Think At Estimating Risk
The latest issue of Psychology Today has an interesting article on how human beings don’t estimate risk well. Most people let fear (irrational fear, that is) run their life. And it prevents them from accomplishing great things, not the least of which is quitting your job to start your own business.
Psychology Today included this short test, which I found to be incredibly revealing. See how many you can get right. Answer are at the end, don’t peak.
- What’s more common in the United States, (a) suicide or (b) homicide?
- Whats the more frequent cause of death in the United States, (a) pool drowning or (b) falling out of bed?
- What are the top five causes of accidental death in America, following motor-vehicle accidents?
- Of the top two causes of non accidental death in America, (a) cancer and (b) heart disease, which kills more women?
- What are the next three causes of non accidental death in the United States?
- Which has killed more Americans, bird flu or mad cow disease?
- How many Americans die from AIDS every year, (a) 12,995 (b) 728,200, or (c) 1,299,500?
- How many Americans die from diabetes every year, (a) 72,820, (b) 728,200, or (c) 7,282,000?
- Which kills more Americans, (a) appendicitis or (b) salmonella?
- Which kills more Americans, (a) pregnancy and childbirth or (b) malnutrition?
ANSWERS: 1. a. 2. a. 3. (in order) drug overdose, fire, choking, falling down stairs, bicycle accidents. 4. b. 5. (in order) stroke, respiratory disease, diabetes. 6. No American has died from either one. 7. a. 8. a. 9. a. 10. b.
How did you do? Haha, number 6 was my favorite (admittedly, a trick question).
One final interesting quote from the article:
After 9/11, 1.4 million people changed their holiday travel plans to avoid flying. The vast majority chose to drive instead. But driving is far more dangerous than flying, and the decision to switch caused roughly 1,000 additional auto fatalities, according to two separate analyses comparing traffic patterns in late 2001 to those the year before. In other words, 1,000 people who chose to drive wouldn’t have died had they flown instead.
Lets be rational about our fears in 2008, and don’t be afraid to take calculated risks based on good teaching/evidence.
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Phil Reynolds said,
Wrote on January 4, 2008 @ 11:55 am
I only got 5 right but number 6 was one of them so I am very happy. :-)
[Reply]
Andrew said,
Wrote on January 4, 2008 @ 2:38 pm
It is important to note that there was one US resident who died of vCJD (Mad cow disease), Charlene Singh. She died in FL in 2004.
However, it is suspected that she contracted the disease by eating meat in England sometime prior to 1992.
[Reply]
Phil Reynolds said,
Wrote on January 5, 2008 @ 4:13 pm
Oh sure you are just trying to take away my happiness about getting that question right. :-P
[Reply]
Brian Armstrong said,
Wrote on January 5, 2008 @ 8:17 pm
Thanks for the info Andrew, and Phil 5 out of 10 is quite impressive. The “list the top 3″ questions are much harder than the “which of these two” questions where you inherently have a 50/50 chance.
Where else in life do you see people being controlled by an irrational fear?
One big fear I see people have is in approaching strangers, either in dating or business networking. The risk is essentially zero, but people’s anxiety goes through the roof in these cases. Public speaking too.
[Reply]
Start a home based business, find a home business idea, and work at home with the perfect home based business opportunity said,
Wrote on May 7, 2008 @ 5:01 pm
[…] or to choke on a small plastic toy. Yet this is what gets the media attention. I wrote about this a while back, how humans are bad at estimating risk. After 9/11 many people were scared to fly, and this […]