Breaking Free
How to Quit Your Job and Start Your Own Business
Why You’re Worse Than You Think At Estimating Risk
In: Lifestyle| Psychology By: Brian Armstrong
4 Jan 2008
The latest issue of Psychology Today has an interesting article on how human beings don’t estimate risk well. Most people let fear (irrational fear, that is) run their life. And it prevents them from accomplishing great things, not the least of which is quitting your job to start your own business.
Psychology Today included this short test, which I found to be incredibly revealing. See how many you can get right. Answer are at the end, don’t peak.
- What’s more common in the United States, (a) suicide or (b) homicide?
- Whats the more frequent cause of death in the United States, (a) pool drowning or (b) falling out of bed?
- What are the top five causes of accidental death in America, following motor-vehicle accidents?
- Of the top two causes of non accidental death in America, (a) cancer and (b) heart disease, which kills more women?
- What are the next three causes of non accidental death in the United States?
- Which has killed more Americans, bird flu or mad cow disease?
- How many Americans die from AIDS every year, (a) 12,995 (b) 728,200, or (c) 1,299,500?
- How many Americans die from diabetes every year, (a) 72,820, (b) 728,200, or (c) 7,282,000?
- Which kills more Americans, (a) appendicitis or (b) salmonella?
- Which kills more Americans, (a) pregnancy and childbirth or (b) malnutrition?
ANSWERS: 1. a. 2. a. 3. (in order) drug overdose, fire, choking, falling down stairs, bicycle accidents. 4. b. 5. (in order) stroke, respiratory disease, diabetes. 6. No American has died from either one. 7. a. 8. a. 9. a. 10. b.
How did you do? Haha, number 6 was my favorite (admittedly, a trick question).
One final interesting quote from the article:
After 9/11, 1.4 million people changed their holiday travel plans to avoid flying. The vast majority chose to drive instead. But driving is far more dangerous than flying, and the decision to switch caused roughly 1,000 additional auto fatalities, according to two separate analyses comparing traffic patterns in late 2001 to those the year before. In other words, 1,000 people who chose to drive wouldn’t have died had they flown instead.
Lets be rational about our fears in 2008, and don’t be afraid to take calculated risks based on good teaching/evidence.
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Phil Reynolds
January 4th, 2008 at 11:55 am
I only got 5 right but number 6 was one of them so I am very happy. :-)
Jayne Sipkins
July 14th, 2008 at 2:30 am
my father died in 1994 due to mad cow’s disease in 1994. He had never traveled out of his hometown
Andrew
January 4th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
It is important to note that there was one US resident who died of vCJD (Mad cow disease), Charlene Singh. She died in FL in 2004.
However, it is suspected that she contracted the disease by eating meat in England sometime prior to 1992.
Jayne Sipkins
July 14th, 2008 at 2:27 am
my father died due to ad cow’s disease in 1994 in Southern Illinois. He had never traveled out of his hometown!
Brian Armstrong
July 15th, 2008 at 2:45 am
If thats true report it to the CDC and have them do an autopsy to prove it, it could save lives for people to know about it and they have no record of it.
Phil Reynolds
January 5th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Oh sure you are just trying to take away my happiness about getting that question right. :-P
Brian Armstrong
January 5th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
Thanks for the info Andrew, and Phil 5 out of 10 is quite impressive. The “list the top 3″ questions are much harder than the “which of these two” questions where you inherently have a 50/50 chance.
Where else in life do you see people being controlled by an irrational fear?
One big fear I see people have is in approaching strangers, either in dating or business networking. The risk is essentially zero, but people’s anxiety goes through the roof in these cases. Public speaking too.
ericabiz
September 27th, 2008 at 7:18 pm
thats crazy numbers (love the pic:)
Brian Armstrong
September 28th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
Thanks Erica. I think I got that off http://www.sxc.hu/ which has some decent (and totally free) stock photos which are good for blog posts. Actually, now I sometimes get them off Flickr which has better quality, you can use most of them there for free as long as you attribute the author since they are under the creative commons license.