The Art Of The Next Big Thing: From Printing Press To Internet

In: Business Ideas|Wealth By: Brian Armstrong

11 Jun 2009

I was thinking the other day about the times in history where there have been opportunities to generate huge amounts of wealth.

It seems to be when a new piece of technology comes along that is a TOTAL game changer.

In recent memory of course is the internet, and all the things it has enabled. A small example being distribution of media such as music and video, and reducing the cost of publishing content to basically zero.

But this trend is not new and has been going on throughout history.

What about the printing press? It was basically the first internet. Even before that, what about the first civilization to create an alphabet or writing?

What about when everyone was using coal and then oil came along? HUGE amounts of wealth generated.

What about when everyone was running around on horses and then railroads came along? COMPLETE game changer.

What about when everyone was using blocks of ice and then refrigeration was invented?

Steel? Plastic? Agriculture? The wheel? Flight?

Wikipedia actually has a list of the wealthiest people in history (adjusted for inflation) and you can see that aside from Royalty (which doesn’t really count as earning it since you’re born into it) most of them are people who got in early on a complete game changing technology.

The trick is getting in at the right time.

Coming in too early: There are also lots of “next big things” which turn out to never materialize, like the flying car or a battery which lasts a long time. People have been waiting for those for 50 years. So it’s definitely not easy to bet on the next big thing and be right. You have to hedge your bets.

Coming in too late: The market for oil and automobiles is very mature today. It would be very difficult to build the next great oil company today, or shoe manufacturing company, or any other mature industry where there are strong incumbents. So it pays to be looking for the NEXT big one, not ones that have already passed. If you can be the only expert around when it does hit then you’re positioned well to capitalize. This requires you to toil away in a particular industry when a lot of people probably think you’re wasting your time.

I feel like the internet still has lots of untapped potential, and it’s probably one of your best opportunities for generating wealth today. But it’s starting to feel a bit mature at times.

So that begs the question: what do you think is going to be the next big thing?

For me I see some of these being complete game changers where people will build huge amounts of wealth. See if you agree with my predictions. Maybe you can get in early on one of these…

genetic engineering (crops, bacteria for various purposes, and most importantly humans to prevent various diseases)
robotics (the military will increasingly become unmanned – casualties are more acceptable if they’re robots)
artificial intelligence (I think Jeff Hawkins and his company Numenta have a good chance of solving this in the next 5-10 years, btw it will not be like terminator, the part of our brain which accounts for desires and motives is very old and easy to replicate or leave out of a robot, the hard part is the neo-cortex which other mammals don’t have and is good at learning to make good predictions – this would definitely be a game changer – for more check out his excellent book On Intelligence)
Renewable energy, in particular solar and electric vehicles

What do you think will be the next big thing?

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13 Responses

Gordie Rogers

June 12th, 2009 at 1:30 am

Interesting. I think the predictions you made are going to be pretty spot on.

Robotics.
I’m not sure why robotics still hasn’t taken off, especially in the developed countries where there too many “menial” jobs which people aren’t willing to do anymore and so immigration is said to be the only way to fill these jobs.

I was reading somewhere where that one of the main reasons Japan invests so much in robotics is because they don’t want to have the headaches, which come with mass immigration. To them robotics is a way of trying to prevent the need for mass immigration to take up the jobs that most citizens are no longer willing to do and companies aren’t willing to pay much for.

Genetic engineering will be slow to develop into a full market in some countries until the debate settles down on the ethical and practical issues. E.g. Some scientists say that GE food products are nowhere near as nutritious as natural products. I’m no expert, but the debate will hinder this area at least a bit for a while yet.

Renewable energy.
I think this is going to be huge. As technology costs come down, it’ll become the norm for people to use these.

A.I.
I’m not so familiar with area but I’m sure it will at have profitable niches in certain industries.

Brian Armstrong

June 16th, 2009 at 11:28 pm

Sorry for the delay in getting this comment on here! :)

Quotes About Innovation

June 12th, 2009 at 3:38 am

Hey Brian.
I don’t know what the next big thing will be, but I do know it will be met with resistance. John Cage said it well: “I can’t understand why people are frightened of new ideas. I’m frightened of the old ones.”

Brian Armstrong

June 12th, 2009 at 8:12 pm

Hmm…interesting, hadn’t thought about it like that. But you’re right, most new ideas are initially met with ridicule. In hindsight the internet was obviously going to change the world, but lots of people probably thought it was a stupid idea.

College Town Menus (CTM)

June 12th, 2009 at 1:57 pm

I agree that the Internet is a great place to start something new with a better chance of success than other industries. Less startup and maintenance costs, and easy scalability to become something huge. Although I agree that at times it “feels” that the Internet may be maturING, it is by no stretch final or at it’s peak in my oppinion. There are SO MANY things that we are unaware of that the internet can do to change our lives drastically – we just need entrepreneurs to take the risks, invest in their ideas, and bring these to the world for all to benefit from.

I agree mostly in that I think transportation and energy demands will be huge players coming up soon. In a close second (and should probably be “first” on the list) is water purification and food production. With the exponential increase in little gadgets, we need to tap new energy resources to power these little things, which when in cumulation consumes MASSIVE amounts of power. I think upgrading “the grid” for the masses is big, enabling independant home power generation via solar and wind is a big emerging market, and gray water recycling at homes is also another soon to come technology. I also think there can and will be a massive “C2C network” (Car to Car) similar to Peer to Peer (P2P) which can drastically increase safety, speed, fuel efficiency, and lower traffic volume. Many of these are yet to be seen because the technology required to implement these are so massive and needs mass acceptance first before implementation; though will definately be “game changers.”

Brian Armstrong

June 12th, 2009 at 8:13 pm

Good thoughts…yep. One area where the internet is not mature yet is abroad. There are still lots of less developed areas like India or Argentina where they still need an equivalent of a popular/successful website in the U.S. They are starting to pop up all over though.

John Bardos

June 12th, 2009 at 4:32 pm

Your suggestions for game changing new technologies are accurate but out of reach for most smaller businesses. Success in those industries requires multi-million dollar investments if not much more.

I think real wealth can still be accomplished by doing much smaller things. Look at what kogibbq.com has accomplished in such a small time. Or an even better example is Gary Vaynerchuk. He is a one main media machine. Hard work towards much simpler ideas can still result in some great results. Look how simple of an idea Twitter is.

Richard Branson became a billionaire in already well established industries. I don’t think searching for the next big thing is the way to success. Sometimes you just have to create the next big thing yourself.

There will be many fortunes lost in those industries you mentioned, as well as fortunes made. The skills of the entrepreneurs involved as well as a little luck will determine the victors.

Brian Armstrong

June 12th, 2009 at 8:15 pm

Good points…it’s just as easy to lose as to win big. The internet is a big unique in that sense in that there is very little up front capital required. I like that about it…you can experiment and fail a bunch of times and not lost much (but gained lots of wisdom) Thanks!

Andrew

June 15th, 2009 at 2:26 am

A few more hot buttons I think worth mentioning:

-Social Media (Youtube, Twitter, and Facebook. Or YouTwitFace in the future thanks to Conan O Brian)

-Cloud computing (A netbook for everyone while all the real computing is done… out there…)

-Digital distribution (A personal favorite that’s about 25% done so far. Get everything you want delivered directly to you without having to wait. Movies are already there thanks to Netflix, but games are only halfway there with Steam. Also, what if you could pay to have new release films streamed directly to you?)

Brian Armstrong

June 16th, 2009 at 11:23 pm

Great stuff Andrew…I think social media will continue to grow, but look much different in the future than it does today (with more pay services – it’s not feasible to keep it free I don’t think). Good thoughts!

Andrew

June 18th, 2009 at 10:34 pm

Funny how these things work eh?

Just 4 days after your post, this article shows up.
http://bigthink.com/gregorygo/eleven-technologies-that-will-revolutionize-business

Brian Armstrong

June 25th, 2009 at 2:52 am

Cool thanks for the tip!

Elly Double

July 2nd, 2009 at 2:41 pm

I wonder if you are familiar with Narrative Magazine (www.narrativemagazine.com), one of my favorite new media organizations and a successful one at that. They are a nonprofit whose mission is to bring great literature to the world, free – and they publish tons of great new voices in the process.

Breaking Free

The Art Of The Next Big Thing: From Printing Press To Internet

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